Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 104373.655852 109945.102791 115509.073500 121478.887780 127699.081363 133985.416490 140815.053624
2025-10-12 96307.382669 104912.433719 113737.488224 123453.690750 133839.465813 144597.039369 156570.739027
2025-10-19 89951.877149 100629.684974 111812.214367 124374.067875 138069.070361 152523.480651 168909.547437
2025-10-26 84545.034065 96730.417973 109718.562216 124555.650590 140997.344821 158620.675948 178899.916190
2025-11-02 80320.448629 93724.607569 108233.199874 125050.048859 143949.369078 164476.153675 188398.367471
2025-11-09 76398.250380 90761.849961 106527.500310 125042.855397 146114.964513 169272.669743 196566.826998
2025-11-16 73747.159331 89045.180099 106049.049970 126254.899239 149510.780183 175336.617761 206079.750896
2025-11-23 70596.334669 86574.941718 104549.857007 126149.573670 151275.070714 179452.451103 213308.756539
2025-11-30 68810.481047 85582.714436 104656.586260 127808.678383 154997.534014 185757.354838 223023.974323
2025-12-07 66862.967280 84294.802187 104326.414695 128875.668998 157967.289536 191154.022052 231676.291175
2025-12-14 64500.335637 82406.310210 103194.041491 128909.927125 159653.268739 195007.236226 238502.571222
2025-12-21 62504.288095 80875.263005 102410.791032 129289.113145 161689.588763 199231.445277 245745.633508
2025-12-28 61494.883811 80526.092406 103040.110170 131374.151623 165794.684030 205958.087472 256047.141464
2026-01-04 60325.071506 79930.921508 103333.918089 133027.615608 169373.471952 212074.248222 265667.185871
2026-01-11 58841.590735 78886.240587 103027.495694 133905.958606 171984.895281 217023.550136 273904.156023
2026-01-18 57099.828141 77454.056916 102187.084195 134076.787437 173693.953048 220863.685057 280801.988215
2026-01-25 55628.066350 76312.458344 101661.787917 134597.039521 175801.450075 225170.689536 288268.940826
2026-02-01 53988.302821 74901.149855 100749.112819 134588.323368 177219.056463 228615.551019 294681.207950
2026-02-08 53033.627010 74341.807271 100884.451671 135875.335591 180237.242044 234023.750241 303520.685483
2026-02-15 51497.498343 72975.063463 99947.561138 135763.427395 181471.245283 237214.787447 309627.122706
2026-02-22 50864.240947 72773.969526 100488.381963 137525.264315 185066.024837 243343.472740 319403.293790
2026-03-01 49991.324964 72224.789593 100554.502637 138658.197544 187854.028262 248471.660044 327957.840506
2026-03-08 48693.753236 71068.838344 99796.422689 138694.570737 189220.082953 251808.284027 334276.512429